Pick Performance
L2Record
2-3
Units P/L
-1.7u
ROI
-28.3%
Win Rate
40%
Total Picks
5
0
Fact Checks
0
Fraud Flags
Mobley 1Q
With Jarrett Allen out, Mobley becomes the primary focal point in the paint. The full-game 19.5 line only hits at a 50% rate under these specific conditions. Targeting the 1Q derivative isolates his early workload before rotations shift. The matchup vs DAL is highly favorable. They play fast (5th in pace) and offer minimal rim protection (30th in paint pts allowed, 27th defending the restricted area). This aligns with Mobley's shot profile. He takes 71% of his shots from < 10 ft and generates 54% of his offense strictly in the restricted area. When playing without Allen against weak interior defenses, Mobley is 5/6 (83.3%) to this 1Q over. He exploited this exact matchup two days ago, scoring 16 pts in the first quarter against Dallas. Number also available for 10 cents more on MGM.
Pick
Evan Mobley Over 1Q 4.5 pts
Odds
-125
Units
1.25u
Toumani
This is a solid matchup against UTA for his specific play style. The Jazz play fast (3rd in pace) and have the worst defensive rating in the league (30th). He generates 60% of his offense from spot ups (38%) and transition (22%). UTA ranks dead last (30th) defending both of those exact play types. He also takes 53% of his shots via catch and shoot (C&S) and 48% from above the break...areas where the Jazz once again rank dead last (30th). They are a complete funnel for his exact shot profile, and overall rank 29th against his position. When filtering for faster paced matchups and weak perimeter defenses, Toumani is smashing this number, clearing 12.5 in 13 of his last 16 games (81% hit rate) while averaging 15.1 pts. We've seen similar wings like Herb Jones and Jaylen Wells exploit these same defensive leaks against UTA recently to go over their totals.
Pick
Toumani Camara
Odds
-125
Units
1.25u
Kispert PRA
Hawks are a 15.5 point favorite against a depleted Nets team. Blowout on the cards, veteran starters sit the 4th quarter, and rotation wings like Kispert get extended garbage time run. In games the Hawks win, when Kispert plays his standard 18-32 minutes, he's clearing this 12.5 line 6/6, averaging 21.8 PRA. Nets weak at transition and spot up defence. Fits into Kispert's play type. His minutes have trended downwards recently, but add in Dyson Daniels q tag and Kispert's minute floor could be elevated.
Pick
Corey Kispert Over 12.5 PRA
Odds
-105
Units
1.05u
Beef Stew
**Isaiah Stewart over 8.5 pts (-125 on FD)** Going right back to the well with Beef Stew tonight. He burned us last game with a 2/7 dud against Brooklyn, but the situational context tonight is too good to ignore. The 76ers' injury report is comical. They are already without Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, Paul George, and Kelly Oubre. More importantly for Stewart, their entire center depth chart is eradicated. Johni Broome and Adem Bona are OUT, and Andre Drummond was just downgraded to Questionable. Philadelphia is going to be forced to run out undersized forwards like Dominick Barlow and Trendon Watford at the five. Even before these injuries, the Sixers ranked 26th in defending the Restricted Area. Stewart gets 74% of his shot diet from within 10 feet of the rim. Putbacks and cuts are on the menu against a completely nonexistent interior defense. Stewart plays 20-22 minutes off the bench regardless of the script. Now, he probably wont get extra run, but the hope here is that he gets to bully some tired legs/undersized players in Barlow and Watford at the 5 with his rotation minutes. Without Ausar Thompson, he hits this 8.5 number in 75% of his games. Great bounce back spot.
Pick
Isaiah Stewart over 8.5 pts
Odds
-125
Units
1.25u
RJ Barrett 20 piece
With Murray-Boyles out, RJ is hitting this number. When he logs his usual 27-37 mins without Murray-Boyles against weak spot-up and transition defenses, he’s 7/7 and averaging 24+ pts. NOP is a great matchup for his exact play style. RJ generates nearly half his offense from transition (25%) and spot-ups (20%). The Pels are getting cooked in both areas, ranking 27th vs transition and 25th vs spot-ups. He also takes 60% of his shots < 10ft, which lines up perfectly with NOP ranking 24th in paint pts allowed. Overall, they rank 25th vs his position and 26th in defensive rating. With his main play types funneling straight into their biggest defensive leaks, I see him getting 20 tonight.
Pick
RJ Barrett Over 19.5 pts
Odds
-120
Units
1.2u