Mobley 1Q

With Jarrett Allen out, Mobley becomes the primary focal point in the paint. The full-game 19.5 line only hits at a 50% rate under these specific conditions. Targeting the 1Q derivative isolates his early workload before rotations shift. The matchup vs DAL is highly favorable. They play fast (5th in pace) and offer minimal rim protection (30th in paint pts allowed, 27th defending the restricted area). This aligns with Mobley's shot profile. He takes 71% of his shots from < 10 ft and generates 54% of his offense strictly in the restricted area. When playing without Allen against weak interior defenses, Mobley is 5/6 (83.3%) to this 1Q over. He exploited this exact matchup two days ago, scoring 16 pts in the first quarter against Dallas. Number also available for 10 cents more on MGM.